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2008 Olympic Medals

2008 Olympic Medals

I came across an interesting site which handicaps races of all types for online betting sites.  The average odds for the Olympic Time Trial at the site at the time of the post are listed below. The odds makers have all the favorites that we have been reading about for many weeks on the top of the list. 

The Men’s race looks to be wide open. Of the several riders who have a chance, here are my picks. I think Schumacher will win gold based mainly on the tour time trials where he really took it to the field including Cancellara. I think Leipheimer will win silver due to time trial and climbing skills. Cancellara’s is my pick for bronze due mainly to his effort in the road race and that he is a monster of course. Kim Kirchen is my spoiler for silver or bronze. He showed his mettle with two exceptional performances at this years Tour de France. He is on form and able to power on the mountains.

To be frank, I think the US would have been better off with Vande Velde for the time trial. He has nearly matched Kirchens TT performances this year and is excellent form. I would have put him in as spoiler as well. That said, Zabriskie may derive motivation to prove, as he has been saying, that he is in contention.

Underlying this situatuion is the selection process. I am not trying to second guess the US Olympic Committee or diminish the exceptional talants of Dave Zabriskie. I recognize that the process by which athletes are selected attempts to balance many factors and rightly so. Key among them is to select an athlete early enough for them to prepare adequately. In addition, an early select offers the potential for the athlete to time training for peak performance. Of course the other side of it is that an early selection has the disadvantage of missing the rider who is healthy and peaking. An early select may commit the team to a rider who does not mature as expected.

Unfortunately the ‘balance’ is cemented in the form of a selection process unique to each sport. It is an attempt to build the most competive team as fairly as possible. A process that for some sports limits flexibility. That is what we have in this case. 

It could be worse. Consider gymnastics. The fairness in submitting the the Karolyi’s to hand pick a team seems a bit suspect. Worse yet is having coaches invite players to a selection camp as was done for women’s basketball team selection. That situation lead to some major drama. I expect that the process will be adjusted and fine tuned many more times in the future.

Ok, sorry for the tangent.

As for the women’s race, I like Kristen Armstrong. She is more than capable of stomping this course and will. I have Soeder’s for silver based on a driven road race performance on top of strong time trial performance at worlds. World time trial champ Kupfernagel is my pick for bronze.

Men’s Field
Fabian Cancellara – 1.67 to 1
Stefan Schumacher – 4.75 to 1
Michael Rogers – 15 to 1
Christian Vandevelde – 19 to 1
Levi Leipheimer – 22 to 1
Alberto Contador – 22 to 1
David Zabriskie – 23 to 1
Cadel Evans – 23 to 1
Santiago Botero – 23 to 1

Women’s Field
Kristin Armstrong – 3.38 to 1
Hanka Kupfernagel – 3.38 to 1
Christiane Soeder – 5.46 to 1
Priska Doppmann – 5.46 to 1
Mirjam Melchers – 10.50 to 1
Jeannie Longo-Ciprelli – 10.50 to 1
Emma Pooley – 10.50 to 1
Zulfiya Zabirova – 10.97 to 1
Susanne Ljungskog – 12.88 to 1

Articles:
Guardian Article about the British Chances
CBS Sports Article on USA Zabriskie and Thorburn Chances
Cycling News Article on the Olympic Time Trial

2008 Olympic Time Trial Start List
Women
11:30:00 25 Alexandra Wrubleski (Canada)
11:32:00 24 Lang Meng (China)
11:34:00 23 Natalia Boyarskaya (Russia)
11:36:00 22 Edita Pucinskaite (Lithuania)
11:38:00 21 Emma Pooley (Great Britain)
11:40:00 20 Maryline Salvetat (France)
11:42:00 19 Emma Johansson (Sweden)
11:44:00 18 Min Gao (China)
11:46:00 17 Karin Thurig (Switzerland)
11:48:00 16 Marianne Vos (Netherlands)
11:50:00 15 Zulfiya Zabirova (Kazakhstan)
11:52:00 14 Linda Melanie Villumsen Serup (Denmark)
11:54:00 13 Judith Arndt (Germany)
11:56:00 12 Tatiana Guderzo (Italy)
11:58:00 11 Jeannie Longo-ciprelli (France)
12:00:00 10 Mirjam Melchers-Van Poppel (Netherlands)
12:02:00 9 Priska Doppmann (Switzerland)
12:04:00 8 Oenone Wood (Australia)
12:06:00 7 Marta Vilajosana (Spain)
12:08:00 6 Kristin Armstrong (USA)
12:10:00 5 Susanne Ljungskog (Sweden)
12:12:00 4 Christiane Soeder (Austria)
12:14:00 3 Nicole Cooke (Great Britain)
12:16:00 2 Christine Thorburn (USA)
12:18:00 1 Hanka Kupfernagel (Germany)

Men
Wave 1
13:30:00 39 Matias Medici (Argentina)
13:31:30 38 Fumiyuki Beppu (Japan)
13:33:00 37 Hossein Askari (Iran)
13:34:30 36 Svein Tuft (Canada)
13:36:00 35 Matija Kvasina (Croatia)
13:37:30 34 David George (South Africa)
13:39:00 33 Vasil Kiryienka (Belarus)
13:40:30 32 Matej Jurco (Slovakia)
13:42:00 31 Denys Kostyuk (Ukraine)
13:43:30 30 Steve Cummings (Great Britain)
13:45:00 29 Brian Vandborg (Denmark)
13:46:30 28 Raivis Belohvosciks (Latvia)
13:48:00 27 Robert Gesink (Netherlands)
Wave 2
14:30:00 26 Simon Spilak (Slovenia)
14:31:30 25 Rein Taaramae (Estonia)
14:33:00 24 Andriy Grivko (Ukraine)
14:34:30 23 Ryder Hesjedal (Canada)
14:36:00 22 Andrey Mizourov (Kazakhstan)
14:37:30 21 Przemyslaw Niemec (Poland)
14:39:00 20 Maxime Monfort (Belgium)
14:40:30 19 Vincenzo Nibali (Italy)
14:42:00 18 David Zabriskie (USA)
14:43:30 17 Laszlo Bodrogi (Hungary)
14:45:00 16 Chris Anker Sorensen (Denmark)
14:46:30 15 Bert Grabsch (Germany)
14:48:00 14 Denis Menchov (Russia)
Wave 3
15:30:00 13 Samuel Sánchez (Spain)
15:31:30 12 Santiago Botero (Colombia)
15:33:00 11 Marzio Bruseghin (Italy)
15:34:30 10 Michael Rogers (Australia)
15:36:00 9 Vladimir Karpets (Russia)
15:37:30 8 Kim Kirchen (Luxembourg)
15:39:00 7 Gustav Erik Larsson (Sweden)
15:40:30 6 Levi Leipheimer (USA)
15:42:00 5 Stef Clement (Netherlands)
15:43:30 4 Alberto Contador (Spain)
15:45:00 3 Cadel Evans (Australia)
15:46:30 2 Stefan Schumacher (Germany)
15:48:00 1 Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland)

Allez915

Sastre patiently waited for his chance to shine and then delivered on L’Alpe d’Huez. The CSC

Stage 17 Winner - Carlos Sastre

Stage 17 Winner - Carlos Sastre

strategy appears to have been to fake the GC contenders into following Frank Schleck then hit em with a blistering Sastre acceleration. Make no mistake, Sastre attacked the yellow jersey group. He wasn’t trying to pace Frank. He was clearly going for the win and unless he broke ranks, he had the blessing of the team to do it. The decider may have been Sastre’s better potential in the time trials. Either way, it was a masterful team play which leveraged a hand of aces this team possesses. Cadel was happy to have the little help he had and did well to limit the damage.

The riders come out of the Alps tomorrow in Stage 18. While there are a few climbs including a Cat 2 climb toward the end, it is unlikely that the GC guys will contest. Stage 19 heads into the flat lands leaving little chance for a GC shakeup. It is more likely that the Tour will be decided on the Stage 20 time trial. So the lingering question is..was it enough?

Stage 4 results offer a glimpse of the time trial potential for Cadel and Carlos. Cadel placed third in the time trial, 27 seconds off the winning time. Sastre finished at 28th about 1:39 back for a gap of 1:12. The Stage 20 time trial is rolling but also longer at 53km versus the relatively flat 29.5km TT of stage 4. Simple math suggests a relative gap of 2:09. As Cadel is 1:34 behind on GC after today’s stage, it is a good bet that Cadel is within striking range. There are plenty of other variables you could consider when handicapping the Stage 20. I’ll leave that to those who are inclined. Suffice to say it will be a dog fight.

Stage 4 Elevation Profile

Stage 4 Elevation Profile

Stage 2 Elevation Profile

Stage 2 Elevation Profile

Sastre will have three days to enjoy the armor of the yellow and convince himself that he is more than even he thought, a time trial guy. The team dynamic is strong in CSC. Many sacrifices were made to put him in position. Carlos will be riding beyond himself with that in mind on Saturday.

Stage 17 Video Recap: http://tinyurl.com/cjp6a

Stage 17 Race Reports

Bike Radar: http://tinyurl.com/57rez3

Velonews: http://tinyurl.com/6qxj8f

Cycling News: http://tinyurl.com/55lsfw

Versus: http://preview.tinyurl.com/57fuls

Yahoo Sports: http://tinyurl.com/5g5bmf

Stage 17 Results:

1 Carlos Sastre (Spa) CSC-Saxo Bank, 6.07.58 (34.32 km/h)
2 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel – Euskadi, 2.03
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team CSC – Saxo Bank, st.
4 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d’Epargne, 2.13
5 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC – Saxo Bank, st.
6 Vladimir Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale, 2.15
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto, st.
8 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank, st.
9 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30
10 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner, st.

Overall Standings:

1 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC – Saxo Bank, 74.39.03
2 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC – Saxo Bank, 1.24
3 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner, 1.33
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto, 1.34
5 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank, 2.39
6 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30, 4.41
7 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d’Epargne, 5.35
8 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel – Euskadi, 5.52
9 Tadej Valjavec (Slo) AG2R La Mondiale, 8.10
10 Vladimir Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale, 8.24

The tour moved, westward away from the Pyrenees today on a path towards the Alps and some

Stage 11 Winner, Arvesen & Runner Up, Elmiger

Stage 11 Winner, Arvesen & Runner Up, Elmiger

tough stuff on stages 15, 16 and 17. The stage had a nice Cat 1 climb about two thirds in on the 167.5-km path from Lannemezan to Foix. The GC contenders were happy to give away the stage to a breakaway effort and weren’t disappointed. They let a break go at 35k which rode into the sunset. As the best placed rider was over 20 minutes back,  there was little pressure to chase. The result was that the stage became an extension of yesterday’s rest day for the GC contenders for the most part anyway. The break eventually ended up over 14 minutes ahead of the field at the finish. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that only the commentators new much about this collection of riders. The run in to the finish was interesting in that there were new riders to follow.  What else was there to do? There was no change to the overall standings.

Oscar Pereiro made a stab as a solo break couldn’t make it stick as CSC dropped the hammer to keep him in check among others. All’s quite on the GC front, with Cadel Evans in first, Schleck in second and Vande Velde in third.

Tomorrow could be a sprinters stage. It will be interesting to see if Mark Cavendish can shake out his legs to get in the mix.

Barloworld’s Duenas Nevado’s was given the boot after test results from Stage four came back positive for EPO. Apparently the mess was in his trailer. It seems a few bad eggs suck the goodness away at times. No sucking…that’s it!

Stage Video: http://tinyurl.com/cjp6a

Race Reports

Yahoo Sports: http://tinyurl.com/6y3kyj
Velonews: http://tinyurl.com/6lmxxy
Cycling News: http://tinyurl.com/5ubjqn
Bicycling: http://tinyurl.com/6693su

Stage 11 Results

1 Kurt-Asle Arvesen (Nor) Team CSC – Saxo Bank, 3.58.13 (42.19 km/h)
2 Martin Elmiger (Swi) AG2R La Mondiale, st.
3 Alessandro Ballan (Ita) Lampre, st.
4 Koos Moerenhout (Ned) Rabobank, 0.02
5 Alexandre Botcharov (Rus) Crédit Agricole, 0.11
6 Pierrick Fédrigo (Fra) Bouygues Telecom, 0.14
7 Filippo Pozzato (Ita) Liquigas, st.
8 Benoît Vaugrenard (Fra) Française des Jeux, st.
9 Fabian Wegmann (Ger) Gerolsteiner, st.
10 Marco Velo (Ita) Team Milram, st.
11 Dmitriy Fofonov (Kaz) Crédit Agricole, st.
12 Amaël Moinard (Fra) Cofidis – Le Crédit par Téléphone, 0.29
13 Thor Hushovd (Nor) Crédit Agricole, 14.51
14 Erik Zabel (Ger) Team Milram, st.
15 Leonardo Duque (Col) Cofidis – Le Crédit par Téléphone, st.

Overall Standings

1 Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence – Lotto, 46.42.13
2 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC – Saxo Bank, 0.01
3 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Chipotle p/b H30, 0.38
4 Bernhard Kohl (Aut) Gerolsteiner, 0.46
5 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank, 0.57
6 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC – Saxo Bank, 1.28
7 Kim Kirchen (Lux) Team Columbia, 1.56
8 Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Saunier Duval – Scott, 2.10
9 Riccardo Riccò (Ita) Saunier Duval – Scott, 2.29
10 Vladimir Efimkin (Rus) AG2R La Mondiale, 2.32

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